Food & Climate
U.S. independent restaurants are no strangers to volatility, but today they face a new, unnecessary hurdle: a trade environment disrupted by president Donald Trump’s tariffs, which create two new problems.
U.S. independent restaurants—establishments owned and operated by an individual, family, or small group rather than a larger chain or franchise—are more than places to eat. They’re cultural and economic pillars of our communities, employing 3% of the U.S. workforce, generating $75 billion in wages, and contributing over $209 billion in revenue each year.
In recent years these community anchors, which rely on the entire food supply chain, have faced compounding challenges—including the pandemic, climate change, and rising costs, and recently the tariffs according to a report seen by “Food & Climate” platform.
When diners sit down for a meal, they often don’t see the complex and vulnerable supply chain that dictates the cost and availability of ingredients. For chefs and restaurant owners, these real-time, existential challenges are as plain as day, threatening not only restaurant viability, but also the local economies and food producers that supports.
Food imports
Much attention has been focused on Trump administration’s tariffs, which will impact food imports and have wide-ranging effects across the food supply chain—not just for restaurants, but also for farmers and for regular folks just trying to afford groceries, let alone a meal at their favorite local eatery.
For U.S. independent restaurants and chefs, tariffs create two major problems. First, there’s the unpredictability. What ingredients will be available next month? Which will suddenly become prohibitively expensive? What will the retaliation look like from global trade partners seeking to protect their own economies?
This uncertainty makes it extremely challenging for restaurants to plan menus, pricing, and procurement strategies—crucial elements of staying afloat in an already challenging business. Furthermore, as the administration threatens tariffs, then pulls back or selectively protects certain industries, it creates further volatility in the market that restaurants must grapple with.
Second, there’s the impact when tariffs actually go into effect. While larger chains and franchises may be better able to protect themselves from the impact, for U.S. independent restaurants, which operate on razor-thin margins, the rise in costs could be devastating. Tariffs on imports may drive up prices on everything from wine and cheese to seafood, produce, and grains.
Fruit and produce items that are a key part of many lunch and dinner plates in restaurants across the country—such as avocados, asparagus, and cucumbers—would likely be impacted. Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs from global trading partners could put additional strain on American farmers or suppliers, making it more expensive to buy domestic products as well.
Trade war
A trade war could increase input costs for farmers through tariffs on imported goods vital to their business, like fertilizer and machinery, leading to higher food costs. Gas prices could also go up as a result of new tariffs, leading to higher costs for transporting ingredients. Increasing pressures from a trade war and the market volatility that would follow would make it even harder to support farmers, who are the backbone of the restaurant industry.
Restaurants cannot receive an exemption or waiver—they purchase from a range of different suppliers and are impacted in multiple ways. Restaurant owners know a cost increase is coming; they just won’t know when it will happen, what the cost increase will be on which products, or for how long.
Take Gregory Leon, owner and chef of Amilinda, based in Milwaukee. Leon sources wine and sherry from Portugal and Spain and, depending on the time of year, vegetables from Mexico. Tariffs on goods from Europe or our neighbor to the south will have a direct effect on his bottom line and the quality and cost of the product he puts on his customers’ tables. Tariffs on the Canadian fertilizer that the state’s farmers rely on could further increase prices from local sources.
According to The James Beard Foundation 2025 Independent Restaurant Industry Report, after a promising rebound in 2023, there was cautious optimism heading into 2024. But that optimism quickly gave way to a cascade of pressures: rising labor costs, economic uncertainty, and unpredictable external forces. For years, the industry had pointed to the pandemic as the primary disruptor.
But in 2024, there was no single crisis—just a steady accumulation of challenges from every direction. Now, with the added weight of tariffs, the pressure may become unsustainable. For U.S. independent restaurants that already operate on single-digit margins, tariffs aren’t just one more hurdle; they’re a potential tipping point for an industry already stretched to its limits.
It’s time to bring U.S. independent restaurants to the policy table. They support farmers, feed communities, fuel economies, and reflect cultural identity. Independent restaurant owners and the dining public should make clear to their elected officials in Washington—by calling, writing, and meeting with them—that ignoring the realities restaurants are facing is a recipe we simply can’t follow, according to “civil eats” report.