Food & Climate
Maximo Torero, Chief Economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), stated that the duration of the Iran war crisis will determine the adequacy of global food stocks. However, he added that fertilizer prices could rise by up to 20% in the first half of 2026.
Speaking at a daily UN press briefing on Thursday evening, March 26, Torero noted that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had decreased by more than 90% in the days following the escalation of tensions. This means that a vital waterway through which 20 million barrels of oil are transported daily—approximately 35% of global crude oil flows—is affected, along with one-fifth of liquefied natural gas and up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers.
Torero added: “This is not just an energy shock, but a systemic shock affecting food systems globally. The Gulf region accounts for nearly half of the world’s sulfur trade, a key element used in the production of sulfuric acid, which is necessary for processing phosphate rock into fertilizer. Disruptions to sulfur supplies threaten to disrupt global phosphate fertilizer production, including in major producing countries.”
According to the statement received by Food & Climate, Torero continued, shipping restrictions have been exacerbated by a sharp rise in insurance costs. Following the escalation of attacks in early March, war risk insurance premiums jumped from 0.25% to as much as 10% of a ship’s value, with coverage being reset every seven days.
Torero warned that even if the situation de-escalates, it could take months for shipping conditions to return to normal.
How long will global food stocks remain resilient?
Maximo Torero stated that the duration of the war crisis in Iran will determine its global impact. In the event of a short-term disruption lasting up to one month, the effects are expected to remain limited because global food stocks are currently adequate, and markets could stabilize within three months.
Furthermore, the FAO Food Price Index remains approximately 21% below its peak in March 2022.
The war enters its fourth week tomorrow, Saturday, March 28, following the US and Israel’s planned attack on Iran on February 28, 2026.
Why US farmers will abandon corn farming after the Iran war?
Torero explained that if the disruption lasts three months or more, the risks will escalate significantly, influencing global agricultural decisions for 2026 and beyond.
Under a medium-term disruption scenario, the FAO anticipates reduced yields for fertilizer-intensive crops such as wheat, rice, and maize, a shift towards nitrogen-fixing crops like soybeans, and increased competition from biofuel production, coupled with higher oil prices that stimulate demand for agricultural inputs.
Analysts had predicted that US corn farmers would abandon the cultivation of this crucial seed for food production, livestock feed, and the production of meat and dairy animals, as well as biofuels.
Countries Most Vulnerable
Máximo Torero stated that the effects of a war crisis in Iran would vary depending on crop cycles and import dependencies. The countries most vulnerable currently include:
Sri Lanka, where the Maha rice harvest is underway; Bangladesh, currently experiencing the critical Boru rice harvest season; India, facing a decline in domestic fertilizer production before the autumn harvest; Egypt, highly vulnerable due to its reliance on wheat imports; and Sudan, currently suffering from severe food insecurity.
He added that in sub-Saharan Africa, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique are the most vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on fertilizer imports.
Major agricultural exporters, such as Brazil, could also experience production impacts, with the potential for these effects to spill over into global markets.
Torero also highlighted two critical secondary risks: first, a potential decline in income flows from Gulf economies could affect millions of households in developing countries that rely on remittances; and second, export restrictions could further tighten global supply and exacerbate price volatility.
Torero called for urgent and coordinated international action. “In the short term, it is essential to establish alternative trade corridors, provide emergency financial support to import-dependent countries, and ensure farmers have access to credit,” he said.
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In the medium term, countries need to diversify their fertilizer import sources, strengthen regional reserves, and avoid export restrictions.
In the long term, the FAO recommends investing in sustainable, input-efficient agriculture, expanding the use of alternative fertilizer technologies such as green ammonia, and treating food systems as strategic infrastructure.
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