Food & Climate
The benchmark for world food commodity prices (FAO Food Price Index) rose in November to its highest level in 20 months since April 2023, increasing by 0.5% from October, driven by surging international vegetable oil quotations, according a statement that “Food & Climate” platform received, today.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 127.5 points in November, up 5.7% from a year ago while still 20.4% below its March 2022 peak, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported Friday.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 7.5% in November from October, marking its second large increase in two months and 32% higher than its year-earlier level.
Global palm oil prices climbed further amid concerns about lower-than-expected output due to excessive rainfall in Southeast Asia. World soy oil prices rose on global import demand, while rapeseed and sunflower oil quotations increased as tightening global supply prospects affected their respective markets.
Butter prices
The FAO Dairy Price Index maintained its upward trajectory in November, increasing by 0.6% from October, driven by rebounding global import demand for whole milk powder. Butter prices reached a new record level amid strong demand and tight inventories in Western Europe, while cheese prices rose due to limited export availabilities.
The other sub-indexes posted declines in November. The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped by 2.7%, down 8.0% below a year earlier. Global wheat prices declined due to weaker international import demand and increased supplies from the ongoing harvests in the Southern Hemisphere.
World maize prices remained stable as strong domestic demand in Brazil and Mexico’s demand for supplies from the United States of America were offset by favorable weather in South America, reduced demand for Ukrainian supplies and seasonal pressure from the ongoing U.S. harvest. The FAO All-Rice Price Index declined by 4.0% in November, driven by increased market competition, harvest pressures and currency fluctuations.
The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 2.4% from October, impacted by the start of the crushing season in India and Thailand and eased concerns over next year’s sugarcane crop prospects in Brazil, where recent rains have improved soil moisture.
The FAO Meat Price Index decreased by 0.8% in November, due mainly to lower quotations for pig meat in the European Union, reflecting abundant supplies and persistently subdued global and domestic demand. World ovine and poultry meat prices fell slightly, while international bovine meat quotations remained stable, with higher Brazilian export prices offset by lower Australia prices.
Cereal Supply and Demand
According to FAO’s new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also released on Friday, global cereal production in 2024 is forecast to decline by around 0.6% from the previous year to 2 841 million tons, a downward revision from October, yet still the second-largest output on record.
Global wheat output for 2024 is expected to be on par with 2023, at 789 million tons, while maize output is forecast to decline by 1.9% from the previous year to 1 271 million tons, due to lower-than-expected yields in the European Union and the United States of America. FAO’s forecast for world rice production in 2024/25 has changed slightly, pointing to a 0.8% annual increase to a record high of 538.8 million tons.
For 2025, softer wheat prices may discourage area expansions of the winter wheat crop underway in the northern hemisphere. Below-normal rainfall in key wheat growing regions in the Russian Federation has led to low soil moisture levels, affecting planting operations. By contrast, favourable soil moisture and government support policies, along remunerative prices, should spur expanded plantings in China and India.
Coarse grain crops are being planted in the southern hemisphere. Early indications suggest a contraction in maize sowings in Argentina due to dry conditions and the risk of stunt disease transmitted by leafhoppers. In Brazil, early planting intentions, encouraged by a return of rainfall, point to the same maize area for the 2025 crop. In South Africa, preliminary expectations point to an increase in white maize sowings, driven by record prices, offsetting a contraction in the yellow maize area.