Food & climate
Climate change is reshaping the structure of Tajikistan’s agricultural sector. A comparison of land use between 1991 and 2024 reveals significant shifts: cotton production has declined by 56%, while the area under grain cultivation has increased by more than 60%.
These changes reflect not only evolving economic priorities but also farmers’ responses to increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, according to a report seen by “Food & Climate” platform.
Professor Qaisar Saddiq of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) explains: “In Tajikistan, 50–70% of arable land depends on irrigation, making it highly vulnerable to the projected reduction in river flow caused by accelerated glacier melt”.
“This is particularly critical for water-intensive crops like cotton. Under high-emissions climate scenarios, we expect a moderate increase in extreme precipitation events and a significant rise in the number of hot days and tropical nights. These changes will likely lead to more frequent and intense droughts, directly affecting both the quality and quantity of agricultural yields”, he added
Three Key Vulnerabilities of Tajikistan’s agricultural sector
Climate Risks Droughts, floods, soil erosion, and pest outbreaks are reducing crop yields and threatening biodiversity. Adapting to these risks requires the development of climate-resilient crop varieties, efficient water and soil management, and the adoption of modern agricultural technologies.
Lack of Investment Limited access to credit, insurance, and modern markets hinders the sector’s modernization. Without adequate financial support, agriculture in Tajikistan struggles to remain competitive and expand its export potential.
Technological Backwardness The sector still relies heavily on outdated traditional methods. A lack of mechanization and skilled specialists leads to significant losses in productivity, resources, and income.
It is clear that climate change is not the only factor undermining the resilience of Tajikistan’s agricultural sector. A combination of environmental, economic, and institutional challenges continues to erode its competitiveness. In 2024, cotton production remains in decline—down by 56% compared to 1991—while food prices continue to rise. These trends underscore the urgent need for systemic and long-term solutions.
Professor Qaisar Saddiq of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) offers several key recommendations:
Promote sustainable water resource management in agriculture, including the modernization of irrigation systems and the adoption of water-saving technologies;
Enhance climate literacy among farmers, agribusinesses, and financial institutions through training, advisory services, and access to climate data;
Ensure access to weather and climate information for seasonal and long-term planning by the Ministry of Agriculture, local producers, and agricultural consultants;
Support income diversification and risk-sharing strategies to strengthen the resilience of rural households and farming systems.
Food Security at Risk
The Tajikistan’s agricultural sector is among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet it remains the cornerstone of food security in Tajikistan. Moreover, a significant portion of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood.
According to official statistics, Tajikistan’s population exceeds 10 million, with more than 7 million living in rural areas. Of the total population, 60% are engaged in agricultural activities, while the official unemployment rate stands at 7.9%.
Data from the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan shows that agriculture contributes approximately 25% of the country’s GDP and accounts for a similar share of exports. The sector also generates 35% of national tax revenues. Beyond food production, agriculture supplies raw materials to various industries, meaning that the livelihoods of countless small and medium-sized enterprises depend directly on its productivity.
Food prices continue to rise on domestic markets, making it increasingly difficult for families to afford a balanced diet. Local farmers and entrepreneurs often attribute price hikes to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, especially given the sector’s reliance on imported fertilizers, machinery, and packaging.
When measured in U.S. dollars, agricultural income has remained relatively stagnant—indicating a lack of real progress and underscoring the need for urgent reforms. Compounding the issue is Tajikistan’s annual population growth rate of 2.7%, which places additional strain on the food system. Without strategic investments in irrigation, land expansion, and climate-resilient technologies, the country risks facing a systemic food shortage in the coming decades.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 60% of Tajikistan’s population suffers from food insecurity—meaning they lack sufficient access to the calories and nutrients needed for a healthy and active life, according to “The times of central Asia“.
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