Food & Climate
Some have benefited from the significant rise in cocoa prices due to climate change, such as “cocoa boys” in Nigeria, while others have been harmed, such as chocolate giant Hershey in the US, where the industry is suffering from import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
Due to climate change there are supply shortages which have translated into sharp price increases on international markets. Cocoa prices have surged past $12,000 per metric ton—more than doubling within a year and reaching their highest level in half a century, according to a report seen by “Food & Climate” platform.
The world’s primary cocoa producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, have faced a series of climatic challenges including excessive rainfall, strong winds, and the spread of diseases like the cacao swollen shoot virus. These factors have led to a significant decline in cocoa yields, with global production falling by more than 13 percent and end-of-season stockpiles shrinking by over a quarter.
Who benefits from the rise in cocoa prices?
Soaring cocoa prices in Nigeria have drawn a new generation of “cocoa boys” to the fields—young entrepreneurs and professionals lured by the promise of profit in farming.
This influx has led to surging demand for seedlings and a renewed interest in agricultural cooperatives. While short-term profitability is driving the trend, some observers hope it could catalyze long-term investments in more sustainable farming systems.
Growing up in Nigeria’s cocoa farming area of Ikom in the southeast, Anyoghe Akwa did not see much of a future, so instead he decided to move away, study civil engineering and carve out a career in the construction industry.
That was until 2023, when he heard that cocoa prices were surging and farmers back home in Ikom were making a fortune.
“We saw 20-year-olds who never attended university generating a lot of money from cocoa farming, while those of us who were aspiring for a PhD were struggling,” said Akwa, 47, who had enrolled in a doctorate programme. “So, we started to come back and opened our own farms.”
Akwa is one of a cohort of new entrants to the sector, mostly men and nicknamed “cocoa boys”, who have switched to farming or other jobs to cash in on the cocoa price surge.
The Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria, which represents smallholder farmers, saw its membership increase by more than 10,000 in 2023-2024.
“Last year, I harvested four bags. I sold the first bag for 800,000 naira ($500), and the others between 1 million and 1.2 million naira per bag. It was a lot of money,” he said, noting that sale of just one bag matched his annual salary as a civil engineer.
At the top price, Akwa was selling cocoa for 20 times its value in 2022, when the price of one 64-kg bag of beans was 60,000 naira, according to local growers.
A drop in output from Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for 50% of global production, drove prices up from $2,200-$2,500 per metric ton in 2022 to nearly $11,000 in December 2024, according to the International Cocoa Organization, an inter-governmental body, according to “Reuters“.
Losers from the crisis
Climate disruption is cascading through every link of the supply chain. Shipping delays caused by extreme weather and infrastructure damage are compounding shortages. Retailers in Europe and North America are adjusting product lines and rationing supply in anticipation of continued turbulence.
Some food companies are responding by strengthening their commitments to sustainability. Mars, Nestlé, and other industry giants have announced new investments in regenerative agriculture and climate adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers.
While U.S. chocolate giant Hershey is also seeking an “exemption” from US tariffs of cocoa imports, the company’s management has confirmed.
Speaking to analysts after Hershey filed its first-quarter results, CFO Steve Voskuil said the Reese’s maker is expecting “incremental tariff expenses” of around $15-20m in its second quarter.
Presenting results last week for the opening three months of 2025, chair and CEO Michele Buck spelt out the steps being taken to combat the effects of Trump’s import levies as Hershey still grapples with elevated cocoa costs.
She did, however, suggest some relief might be on the way from more positive news on cocoa harvests and signs prices might be starting to retreat.
“As a largely domestic food producer, we are relatively less exposed to tariffs than other industries. That said, the current US levy on cocoa is an exposure that we must manage on top of the cocoa market’s unprecedented recent price swings,” Buck said in prepared remarks to accompany the results.
She added: “Cocoa cannot be grown in the United States and thus we are engaging with the US government to seek an exemption, according to “Just Food“.