Food & Climate
It looks like that extreme heat in the Black Sea area hurts Ukrainian corn output more than the war with Russia which has started 30 months ago, according a report seen by “Food & Climate” platform.
Russia has invaded Ukraine in 2022 and destroyed a lot of its infrastructures, especially the energy facilities. Despite of this conflict, Ukrainian crops have been continuing to be exported.
Trade sources said: “extremely hot and dry weather in the Black Sea area has hit Ukrainian growing regions, leading to a 15% drop in corn production forecasts for the 2024/25 marketing year, with potential further damage yet to be assessed”, according to “Fastmarkets”.
“The weather forecast for the Black Sea region is a big red flag,” said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at US-based Maxar, with dryness and below-normal rains expected for July and August likely to crimp the region’s key corn and sunflower crops.
Record temperatures in major global growing regions have delayed planting and hurt developing crops as the impact of climate change intensifies, with vast swathes of farmland in Russia, China, India and parts of the United States experiencing extremely hot conditions and below-normal rainfall, according to “the big site”.
“The month of May in Ukraine turned out to be one of the driest for the last 30 years,” state forecasters said. “In northern regions, in particular in Zhytomyr, hail resulted in damage of spring crops such as corn, soybeans and sunflower”, he added.
Scorching heat across eastern Europe and the Black Sea region is withering corn at a crucial time in the crop’s development, driving concerns of a supply squeeze, according to “Bloomberg”.
Temperatures have crossed 38C (100F) in Ukraine — a top global corn shipper. Romania — one of the European Union’s main producers — is in the midst of a drought. The harsh weather comes as the crop is at a critical
pollinating stage. The heat could prevent kernels forming or cause existing plants to shrivel.
“Ten days in July we observed temperatures above 35 degrees. No bees pollinate at these temperatures,” Tetiana Adamenko, the head of the agriculture department at Ukraine’s National Hydrometeorology Center, said. “It looks preliminarily like the corn harvest is going to be 20 to 30% lower than expected.”
The country’s corn exports are expected to decline about a fifth in the 2024-25 season, with planting areas and yields both lower. Strategie Grains has revised down its estimates for the European Union’s corn crop slightly, in its latest report.
Romania plans to ask the European Union for help in compensating its farmers for more than €500 million ($546 million) in crop damage to over 2 million hectares of the country’s corn and sunflower, Agriculture Minister Florin Barbu said in an interview to state-run state news agency Agerpres.
A dip in corn production risks shrinking stockpiles and pushing up costs to feed livestock herds in the continent — with local prices bucking the recent downturn in benchmark Chicago futures. The crop damage also highlights the risks to food security and living costs as climate change impacts farmers across the globe.