Food & Climate
The measure of world food price index declined in January 2026 for the fifth consecutive month, driven by a drop in the prices of a large number of global commodities, while the oils group saw a notable increase, partly due to rising US demand for biofuels produced from soybean oil, according to the monthly price report issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The FAO report, released on Friday, February 6, 2026, and received by Food & Climate, indicated that the Food Price Index fell by 0.4% compared to December 2025, and by 0.6% compared to the same month last year.
The Food Price Index rose in January 2026 for both cereals and oils, despite declines in wheat, maize, and rapeseed oil.
Some crops saw an increase in the Food Price Index in January 2026
The FAO Cereal Price Index saw a slight increase of 0.2% during January, on a monthly basis. Global wheat and maize prices declined slightly, as ample wheat stocks offset concerns about weather-related issues affecting Russian and US crops (which were dormant due to frost).
Ample global maize supplies also offset adverse weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil and strong demand for ethanol in the United States.
In contrast, the FAO Rice Price Index rose by 1.8% month-on-month, reflecting increased demand for aromatic rice varieties.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index also increased by 2.1%, with global palm oil prices rising amid a seasonal slowdown in production in Southeast Asia and strong global import demand. Global soybean oil prices rebounded due to reduced export supplies in South America and expectations of increased biofuel demand in the United States. Global sunflower oil prices rose, driven by supply constraints in the Black Sea region.
The only exception was rapeseed oil prices, which declined slightly, reflecting ample supplies in the European Union following recent large imports. Meat, Dairy, and Sugar Prices Decline
The FAO Meat, Dairy, and Sugar Price Indices decline
Meat prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, led by a decline in pork prices amid ample global supplies and weak international demand.
International poultry prices rose, driven by higher prices in Brazil supported by strong international demand. Sheep and beef prices remained generally stable, supported by increased shipments from Brazil to China, which offset the rapid depletion of the US tariff-free quota.
The FAO Dairy Price Index fell by 5.0% compared to December, mainly due to lower cheese and butter prices amid ample supply.
In contrast, global skimmed milk powder prices rose, supported by renewed import demand from the Near East, North Africa, and parts of Asia. The FAO Sugar Price Index also declined by 1.0% in January 2026, reflecting expectations of increased supplies in the current season, supported by a notable recovery in production in India, favorable prospects in Thailand, and generally positive production forecasts in Brazil.
Grain stocks hit a five-year high
The FAO released its latest forecast for global cereal production in 2025, predicting that the ratio of global cereal stocks to consumption is on track to reach its highest level since 2001.
The organization said its latest forecast for global cereal production in 2025 indicates it will reach 3,023 million tons, with record harvests of wheat, coarse grains, and rice.
Global cereal consumption in the 2025/26 season is now expected to increase by 2.2% compared to the previous year. Based on updated supply and demand forecasts, global cereal stocks are expected to expand by 7.8% to a record high, with stocks of all major cereals, including rice, increasing.
The global cereal stocks-to-consumption ratio is projected to rise to 31.8%, its highest level since 2001. Global cereal trade is expected to grow by 3.6% during the 2025/26 marketing season (July/June) compared to the previous 12 months.